Test Case 3: California Wildfires

Description

This test case has two distinct time periods, but within a common geographic area.   Both the fall 2007 (~October 20-November 9, 2007) Southern California and summer 2008 (~June 20-October 25, 2008) Northern California fires are utilized, but analyzed independently.  The 2007 southern California and 2008 northern California incidents are examples of multiple regional wildfires near large (2007) and small (2008) population centers, but with large scale human and ecosystem impacts.   Smoke impacts extend into neighboring states, resulting in a useful modeling domain larger than California. Comprehensive PM2.5 and ozone observation datasets were collected throughout the regions.  Additional important datasets such as fire area, including helicopter flown perimeters, and prior, during and post meteorological data were also collected.

Leverages USFS Region 5 2008 fire almanac project work that is collecting air quality monitoring data, fire data, meteorology, and model outputs.  Leverages USFS AirFire and Region 5 rapid response monitoring (JFSP sponsored) as well as the Emergency Smoke Response System prototype that was put into operational use during both sets of fires.

Purpose

To evaluate simulated data over an entire region during an intensive observation data collection period.   This includes not only fire information and emissions, but also smoke dispersion and ground concentrations.

Analysis

Model-to-model primarily, except model-to-observation for:  BASIC FIRE INFORMATION can be compared with independent after-action summary data; 2007 S. Ca. TOTAL CONSUMPTION can be compared with chaparrel consumption data from other studies; SPECIATED EMISSIONS with published studies; TOTAL COLUMN SMOKE and GROUND CONCENTRATIONS with observational data.

Time and space scales

• Modeling domain can range in coverage from local (southern or northern California) to regional (California) to multiple states (California, Nevada, southern Oregon, etc.)
• Spatial modeling resolution will vary depending on domain size (1 km2 to 36 km2) and model output level
• Temporal resolution will range from daily to hourly depending on the model output level

Observational datasets

• Multiple sources of satellite data available
• Ikanos Predator flights; Riggins flights; 
• CARB/AirFire/Region 5 mobile monitors
• JFSP Chapparel consumption studies
• Meteorological ground station data
  

Preliminary results

• see this page.
  

Model runs

Output levels

• ALL with primary focus on the levels where the observation data collected apply towards.
  

Input data

• Dates: October 20-November 9, 2007 (southern event);  June 20-October 15, 2008 (northern event)
• Gridded data for VERTICAL PLUME PROFILE, TOTAL COLUMN SMOKE, and GROUND CONCENTRATION outputs
• Meteorological model output for running Plume Rise and Dispersion modeling levels

Intermeditate initialization data

BASIC FIRE INFORMATION, FUEL LOADING, TOTAL CONSUMPTION, SPECIATED EMISSIONS intermediate output levels available for input to next modeling steps.

Guidelines

• No restrictions unless comparing with observational data;  then model must be independent of observational data.

• Runs not using provided fire information must supply fire information and description. 
  

Status

Baseline pathway run through for both 2007 and 2008 events, comparison to observations in progress.  See preliminary results.

Notes