Larkin et al., 2009: Uncertainties in the use of fuel consumption models, fuel loading maps, and fire reporting systems.
Final report to the JFSP for project 07-2-3-07
Reference
Larkin N.K., Solomon R., Strand T., Raffuse S., Pollard E., Potter B. 2009: Uncertainties in the use of fuel consumption models, fuel loading maps, and fire reporting systems. Final report to the Joint Fire Science Program, Boise, Idaho. 27pp.Abstract
Fire and fuel managers often need to know how much fuel a fire will consume, and how much smoke the fire will produce. Many factors influence the ultimate smoke impacts, and a variety of fuel models and consumption models have been developed to help provide useful answers. However, recent studies [e.g., Larkin et al., 2009] have shown that the specific choice of which model to use can have an overwhelming effect on the final answer.
This project examined four commonly used fuel consumption models and three different fuel loading maps. Cross comparisons were made for all 4x3 = 12 possible combinations across the contiguous United States. Maps were produced of total fuel loadings, component fuel loadings, total consumption, flaming and smoldering consumption components, and more. Additionally, differences in fire information as reported by 3 different reporting systems (ICS-209, HMS, MODIS) were examined to analyze which of these three components introduces the most uncertainty.
Statistical summaries comparing the various fuel loading maps, how well the various consumption models match, and how much the specific combination choice determines consumption estimates were compiled. An interactive website makes the results of these comparisons directly accessible to users. By determining the conditions under which the various models agree and disagree, users can determine which models they trust under which conditions. Additionally, the implications of this work on emissions inventories are discussed.
