NFDRS Evaluation |
The purpose of this website is to provide access to results of a case study of the 2000 fire season in western Montana and Northern Idaho used to evaluate the MM5 mesoscale model for automation of the National Fire Danger Rating System(NFDRS) forecasts. MM5 meteorological predictions at three resolutions, 36-km, 12-km, and 4-km was used to generate Nationl Fire Danger Rating indexes over a 4 week period during an active fire season. We used traditional meteorological verification techniques to evaluate and compare the model's performance in predicting meteorological parameters at the different resolutions. We then sampled within six large fire perimeters from the 2000 fire season to compare NFDRS forecasts with observed indices using zonal averages, interplolation and the closest Remote Automatic Weather Station (RAWS) observations. Two papers and a poster have been completed to summarize the results. Click here to view Real time forecasts of NFDRS indicies based on MM5 model predictions are now available. Go to http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/airfire/sf to view. An overview of the synoptic weather conditions associated with this period as seen in the MM5 ouput at 00z each can be seen here. Mapped images of each index have been generated using ArcGIS along with layers showing RAWS data averaged over fire weather zones and interpolated using a distance weighted scheme. These have been organized into a tabular format which will allow comparison of model and observed data for each date as well as comparison of changes from day to day. Click on an index to view these images. Because indexes using different fuel models are not directly comparable we also computed the indices for each day using fuel model G only. Observed indices were also recomputed using fuel model G. An example of how the results using all fuel models and only fuel model G compare for Energy release component for the three resolutions can be seen here (currently unavailable). Thumbnails of the daily model ouput for each index using fuel modle G can be seen by clicking on the index below. Thumbnails for spread component were not created as neither the forecast nor observed values varied significantly either spatially or temporally so no evaluation was done on this index. Six fires or complexes were selected to evaluate the value of the modeled NFDRS data at the different resolutions. The fires/complexes were selected based on their size and duration as well as the availability of good GIS coverage. A map of their relative location can be seen in Figure 1(currently unavailable). A graph showing the daily acreage burned by the six fires and their relative contribution can be seen in Figure 2(currently unavailable). To view daily fire progression maps based on available GIS coverage click on the fire name. |
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