Lightning causes most wildfires in the western United States and is a major cause of fire elsewhere. Simple predictions of Lightning Activity Level do not accurately determine fire ignition potential because most lightning is accompanied by significant precipitation. Scientists are adapting a methodology to assess the risk of dry lightning so that it can be incorporated into fire preparedness and planning. Fire weather forecasters will be able to use these results to improve predictions of lightning caused fire ignitions. Also, the algorithms can be applied to historical data, allowing assessments of dry lightning activity over time and space. Benefits include improved fire preparedness and resource allocation during the wildfire season and improved assessment of risk for longer term (5-10 year) planning horizons.
