An Automated System for Evaluating BlueSky Predictions of Smoke Impacts on Community Health and Ecosystems

BlueSky, a National Fire Plan product, provides real-time predictions of surface smoke concentrations from prescribed fire, wildfire, and agricultural burn activities to aid land managers in burn/no-burn decisions. Currently operational in the Pacific Northwest , BlueSky is a success story of what inter-agency collaboration can accomplish. One critical component of BlueSky that remains to be addressed, and that directly supports JFSP AFP 2003-1-Task3, is the development of an automated verification system to evaluate predicted impacts from smoke on communities and ecosystems. A verification system is necessary because land managers need to evaluate their burn decisions against potential National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) exceedances, which requires a clear understanding of the accuracy of the predicted particulate matter (PM) concentration fields. We are proposing to develop this as a real-time tool to allow rapid verification and understanding of smoke dispersion models under all burn conditions.

Final Report (Sept. 27, 2007)